Florence, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

790
FXUS64 KHUN 250551
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Currently, a few heavy showers/storm cells are ongoing, generally
along and south of the Tennessee River. Anticipating low to
medium chances (20-40%) of showers and a few storms through most
of tonight. With minimal instability and shear, no severe weather
is expected but some gusty winds, small hail, lightning, and
heavy downpours are possible in the more robust cells that
develop. The other concern for the overnight is fog development
due to recent rains, elevated moisture, light winds, and breaks in
cloud cover. This is especially true along and west of I-65 since
the most rainfall fell in these areas earlier today. In fact, a
few spots over Cullman and northwest Alabama have reported
reductions in visibility over the past hour. Additionally,
temperatures across the local area range between the mid to upper
60s and remain on track to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s
later tonight into early Friday.

An upper level shortwave is slated to progress over the
Mississippi River Valley later tonight and eventually over the
Tennessee and Ohio valleys Friday and into the evening. In
addition, a surface cold front looks to make its way towards the
region Friday evening, with FROPA over the local area late Friday
night into early Saturday morning. Precipitation chances increase
to medium to high (40-60%) by dawn Friday morning then ramp up to
between 60-90% Friday afternoon. Model guidance suggests
instability between 1000-1500 J/kg especially during the day on
Friday, with meager shear (less than 20 knots). However, bulk
shear values are shown to increase to between 20-25 knots Friday
night ahead of the aforementioned front. Severe weather is not
anticipated Friday or Friday night; but, much like the past couple
of afternoons, some strong storms with gusts to 40-50 mph and
small to perhaps quarter-size hail are possible. Furthermore,
grounds are fairly saturated due to recent rainfall. Thus, heavy
downpours may lead to at least nuisance flooding and even
instances of flash flooding where storms continuously move over
the same locations. Remember, turn around, don`t drown if you
encounter flooded roads!

Shower and storm chances then decrease to low to medium (10-30%)
Friday evening and overnight, with lows forecast to dip into the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

After the surface cold front moves to to the southeast Saturday
morning, high pressure looks to build over the Great Lakes region
and gradually extend down into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday.
Upper level ridging is also expected to build over the Southeast
on Saturday and persist through the weekend. Diurnally-driven
shower and storms will continue through the weekend, with chances
decreasing by late weekend.

On Saturday, shower/storm chances increase from low to medium
(10-30%) in the morning to medium to high (30-50%) by the
afternoon. Models continue to show instability values between
1000-1500 J/kg during this time. Like previously mentioned, bulk
shear values increase to between 20-25 knots Saturday morning, but
return to around 20 knots by the afternoon. Overall, general
thunderstorms are anticipated, with perhaps a few stronger storms
capable of producing gusts to 40-50 mph and hail up to 1 inch.
Flooding will also continue to be a concern because of the
rainfall we`ve received recently. Shower and storm activity will
then dwindle by Saturday evening, but return for areas along and
west of I-65 Sunday afternoon (low to medium, 15-30%).

As for temperatures, expect highs to cool slightly from the upper
70s/lower 80s on Saturday to the mid to upper 70s on Sunday. Lows
are forecast to generally remain in the mid 50s to around 60
degrees each night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Our wet pattern is forecast to take a break early next week as
upper level ridging moves in from the west. As rainfall tapers off
by Monday morning, high temperatures are forecast to reach the
low to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies. Dry conditions are
forecast to remain in place through mid week with sfc high
pressure influencing the area from the northeast. An upper level
trough is forecast to begin moving in from the southern Plains,
allowing the Tennessee Valley to be placed in an area of PVA and
rain chances to return on Wednesday. Medium chances of rain are
forecast Wednesday into Thursday as a sfc low approaches the area,
with thunderstorm chances likely during peak heating hours of the
afternoon. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday are
forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Unsettled weather will continue into the late afternoon. Weak
upper level disturbances lurking over the region, in a moist and
conditionally unstable environment, will keep chances for showers
and thunderstorms for much of the TAF. For the overnight, have
kept VCSH in for KHSV, because of more activity to the SSW moving
towards the terminal. Conditions at KMSL should remain dry into
the late night, then VCSH was added. Along with VCSH, some thunder
cannot be ruled out. A stronger upper level system moving in from
the west will result in better chances of convection in the late
morning and afternoon. Went with PROB30 rather than TEMPO for rain
chances into the mid afternoon, given low confidence on timing. Do
have MVFR CIG/VSBY reduction with the heavier showers.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RSB