Florence, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

878
FXUS64 KHUN 031629
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1029 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 824 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

High pressure has now moved into IL, MO and AR this morning with
cold air penetrating to the Gulf Coast along the cold front. Low
clouds persist over southern middle TN into northeast AL, but will
be eroding over the next 2-3 hours. Have adjusted cloud trends to
account for this. Highs in the upper 30s to around 40 look good
with wind chills in the teens this morning with north winds
diminishing this afternoon as the high settles east into KY, TN
and AL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 408 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Latest guidance suggests that the surface high (discussed above)
will drift southward into southern GA overnight, with conditions
nearly ideal for radiational cooling of the boundary layer prior
to a minor increase in high clouds shortly before dawn. With this
in mind, we have reduced blended guidance a bit and indicated lows
in the lower 20s in the valley and mid 20s along the higher
ridgetops due to the presence of a steep low-level inversion in
forecast soundings. Brief development of patchy freezing fog will
also be possible immediately adjacent to large water sources.

It still appears as if a modest warming trend (highs in the
u40s-l50s) will take place across the TN Valley tomorrow, as
another cold core upper vortex and deepening surface cyclone drop
southeastward across Ontario, inducing a southwesterly flow in the
low-levels for our region. Present indications are that
stratiform rain (occurring on the cool side of a surface trough
positioned along the northwest Gulf Coast) will begin to spread
northeastward during the day, perhaps reaching the Arklamiss
region by 0Z Thursday. The northeastern edge of this regime is
then expected to advance into our region, bringing a period of
light rain on Wednesday evening. However, given the slow nature of
airmass modification, we have indicated a gradient in POPs with
highest values in the southwestern corner of the CWFA. It is also
important to note that if temperatures can drop sufficiently prior
to the onset of precipitation, a few patches of light freezing
rain may occur in the valleys of northeast AL. Rainfall is
expected to end from NW-to-SE after Midnight, as the leading edge
of colder and more pure arctic airmass (noted by dewpoints falling
into the 5-10F range by Thursday evening) begins to enter the
region. Due to strong cold advection, highs will struggle to reach
the 35-40F range on Thursday, with Friday morning lows in the
15-20F range and accompanying wind chills in the single digits.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Global models generally suggest that a cold core upper vortex
will travel cyclonically through the Great Lakes region/New
England and into the Canadian maritime provinces early in the
extended period, with southwesterly flow aloft expected to
strengthen across much of the southern CONUS in the wake of a
trailing mid-level ridge. However, there are subtle differences in
the rate at which these processes will occur, which will
ultimately have an impact on when our region can expect to see a
warming trend and increasing chances for rainfall. Present
indications are that we will remain under the influence of a
modifying arctic airmass and dry through at least Friday night,
which has led to removal of light freezing rain across northwest
AL early Saturday morning. Light rain may indeed impact primarily
the southwestern portions of the forecast area at times on
Saturday and Saturday night, but at this point chances for rain
and perhaps a couple of embedded thunderstorms do not appear to
increase considerably until Sunday afternoon, at which time deep-
layer SW flow will strengthen ahead of a southern stream shortwave
trough (the remnants of a slow-moving cutoff low initially over
the southwestern CONUS). Highs will progressively warm from the
u30s-l40s Friday into the l-m 60s Monday, with lows rising into
the m-u 40s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...17