Florence, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

265
FXUS64 KHUN 041047
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
547 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A strong area of high pressure off the GA/SC coast will subtly
amplify across the Tennessee Valley and Southeastern United States
today. The stalled frontal boundary that has generated widespread
thunderstorms and severe weather over the Mid South and Ohio
Valley will likely retreat ever so slightly to the north and west
this morning. This will place the focus of severe weather and
heavy rainfall today a little further to the west, across the
ArkLaTex and into portions of the Mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys.

We`ll likely be seeing some cloud cover from convection to our
west this morning, but this should dissipate somewhat by the
afternoon/evening -- allowing for ample heating and temperatures
to reach the mid to upper 80s by this afternoon! As has been the
case the past several days, we`ll have plenty of instability, but
very limited to no forcing. Additionally, model soundings do hint
at a weak, but present mid-level capping inversion. With the
boundary a little further west, think this will restrict the
potential for convective initiation even further (save for a few
rogue showers and/or storms that could get going due diurnal
heating).

Given the progged thermodynamics, we`ll have to watch
radar/satellite trends closely -- and for any weak mesoscale
boundaries that could get some convection going near the area.
However, precipitation chances will remain very low (10-20%) -- as
will the prospects for any strong/severe storms given the present
trends. If a storm can develop, all modes of severe weather would
be possible given the thermodynamic environment.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

If any showers or storms do develop Friday, they will likely
dissipate Friday night with the loss of daytime heating. As the
upper level trough and subsequent cold front continues eastward
towards the Tennessee Valley Saturday, a gradual increase in cloud
cover is forecast from west to east throughout the day along with
increased chances of thunderstorm development. The main risk of
strong to severe storms will be Saturday evening into Sunday
morning as the cold front pushes eastward through the area-
bringing high thunderstorm chances (80-90%) and all possible modes
of severe weather as well as a risk of flooding. Recent CAMs have
strong disagreement on timing of the storms due to disagreement
on the speed of the cold front. We hope to refine timing over the
next 12-24 hours as models come into more agreement and range of
the system.

In addition to the severe threat Saturday into Sunday, gusty non-
thunderstorm winds up to 25-30 mph are forecast as an increased
sfc pressure gradient occurs ahead of the cold front. If these
forecast gusts increase to 35-40 mph, a Wind Advisory will be
considered for the area.

We are forecasting a gradual end of rainfall from west to east
Sunday afternoon before dry weather returns to start the work
week. More on that in the long term section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

As the upper level trough pushes eastward through the area, post-
frontal conditions set in. Low temperatures Sunday night are
forecast to drop into the mid 40s before only rising into the
upper 50s to lower 60s Monday for highs. This will be around 20-30
degrees cooler than 48 hours prior. Dry conditions are forecast to
continue through mid week as upper level ridging works in from the
west.

For those who have agricultural interests, mid next week will be
concerning as frost becomes a potential concern. Tuesday morning,
a low chance of frost currently exists in portions of NE AL and
southern middle TN as low temperatures drop into the mid 30s.
Wednesday morning, frost chances increase with widespread low
temperatures in the low to mid 30s under clear skies.

A warming trend is forecast after mid week with highs rising into
the mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday will also bring our
next chance of rain (20-30%) as a low pressure system moving
through the Great Lakes potentially brings a frontal boundary to
our area. However, low confidence in this for now as this is a
week out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

MVFR stratus has settled in briefly this morning at KMSL, but
satellite trends and guidance suggest that these clouds will
become scattered out by the late morning and into the afternoon,
with VFR conditions being the predominant flight category. Winds
will remain gusty out of the south between 15-20 kts, especially
from the late morning into the afternoon -- before weakening
after sunset.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...AMP.24